Phase Change and the Limits of Resilience: A Physics-Inspired Lens on Societal Fragility and Collapse
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32871/rmrj2513.02.10Keywords:
societal collapse, phase change metaphor, systemic resilience, complexity theory, adaptive governance, critical transitionsAbstract
Contemporary systemic disruptions in finance, supply chains, ecological regimes, governance and critical infrastructure often appear sudden, yet they usually reflect long periods of hidden stress, declining resilience, and structural weakening beneath surface stability. This paper uses the logic of thermodynamic phase change as a disciplined metaphor for interpreting how modern social systems accumulate latent pressures, maintain metastability, and cross thresholds into rapid reconfiguration. Drawing on research in complexity, resilience, and tipping‑point dynamics, the framework identifies recurring features of systemic transitions: the slow erosion of buffers, weakening recovery capacity, and abrupt shifts that occur once critical boundaries are exceeded. Case analyses illustrate both the value and the limits of the analogy, particularly regarding agency, distributional effects, and political context. The paper then develops policy implications centered on buffering, modularity, early warning signals, adaptive governance, and the efficiency‑resilience trade-off. An ethical analysis examines how metaphors influence responsibility and intervention. While the phase‑change lens does not predict specific events, it offers a structured approach for recognising fragility and supporting governance that can absorb stress, anticipate thresholds, and adapt without disproportionate harm.
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