Life Expectancy Simulation Model among HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)-Infected Individuals: A Monte Carlo Approach

Authors

  • Melvin R. de Castro University of San Jose-Recoletos
  • Tonette M. Villanueva University of San Jose-Recoletos
  • Ronnie B. Gonzalve University of San Jose-Recoletos

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32871/rmrj1402.02.02

Keywords:

life expectancy simulation model, life expectancy, CD4 levels, level of development, age at diagnosis, HIV-infected individuals

Abstract

The study of life expectancies of HIV infected individuals requires a long term
experiment design which may not be feasible due to the immediate need for such information. Alternatively, it is possible to gain insights in the phenomena using a quasi-experimental design through simulation and Monte Carlo methods. This study used the latter design based on the empirical regression function produced by Lancet (2008) which predicts life expectancy of HIV infected individuals as a function of treatment, CD counts and age of the individual. The latter determinants of life expectancy were generated as phenomena by computer simulations. Results revealed that there is an increased lifespan of about six (6) folds of HIV infected individuals who seek treatment than those otherwise. The estimated average lifespan of individuals being treated ranges 38-66 years that is greater than those without treatment of 5-11 years from individuals who do not seek treatment. Computer simulations tended to confirm the efficacy of early diagnosis coupled with antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a
means to prolong life expectancy by as much as five (5) to ten (10) more years.

Author Biographies

Melvin R. de Castro, University of San Jose-Recoletos

is a Registered Nurse, graduated from St. Paul University Dumaguete, Philippines in 2007. He worked as full time faculty at the College of Nursing, University of San Jose-Recoletos from 2008 until present. He also finished his Master of Science in Nursing major in Medical Surgical Nursing in March 2011 at Cebu Normal University. He is also a licensed teacher graduated with Diploma in Professional Secondary Education at Cebu Normal University. He is currently a doctorand candidate in Doctor of Science in Nursing major in Gerontology Nursing at Cebu Normal University. He also presented research studies locally and internationally such as De La Salle University-Manila, College of St. Benilde, La Consolacion University of the Philippines in Malolos, Bulacan and Cebu Normal University during the 2nd International Conference for Nursing Students (ICONS). He bagged Best in Podium Presentation at Cebu Normal University during its 2nd University Research Congress in June 2012.

Tonette M. Villanueva, University of San Jose-Recoletos

is a Professional Teacher and a Registered Nurse, graduated from Nursing Department, University of the Visayas in 2005. He received his Masters in Nursing at Cebu Normal University in 2010. Currently, he is doing his dissertation in Ph.D. in Education Major in Research and Evaluation. He teaches at he University of San Jose- Recoletos since 2006. He handles the following subjects: Psychiatric Nursing, Elective, Nursing Research and Related learning experience. Since 2011, he became one of the research anchors of the College of Nursing. He presented some of his studies in national and international academic conferences.

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Published

2014-12-28

How to Cite

de Castro, M. R., Villanueva, T. M., & Gonzalve, R. B. (2014). Life Expectancy Simulation Model among HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus)-Infected Individuals: A Monte Carlo Approach. Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.32871/rmrj1402.02.02

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