A Predictive Model on the Spread of HIV in Cebu City


  • Jose D. Velez Jr. University of San Jose-Recoletos
  • Ricky B. Villeta University of San Jose-Recoletos
  • Roberto N. Padua
  • Richard Hao University of San Jose-Recoletos
  • Marielle Colina University of San Jose-Recoletos




predictive model, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)


Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), which can be spread by people’s lifestyle, causes Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Social lifestyles such as multiple sexual partnerships, commitment, protected sex practices, and health checkups are lifestyle factors that can impact on the rate at which entry into any of the epidemiologic compartments S, I or D (death) slows or accelerates. Functional relationships between these social parameters and the disease parameters determined the model developed in this study and used predictive agent-based model to simulate the level of spread of HIV cases in Cebu with base data of the risky lifestyle of BPO agents in the region that could make them vulnerable to infections. Simulation results revealed that there is a rise on the incidence of HIV infections every year, which could become an epidemic in the future if no immediate intervention will be done.  This high incidence of HIV cases in Cebu as evidenced by simulation results reflect the lack of awareness, prompt action, and policy in Cebu City with regards to mitigating the spread of the virus. Sans any intervention, the incidence of HIV infection can accelerate further in the future.

Author Biographies

Jose D. Velez Jr., University of San Jose-Recoletos

is a full-time teacher of the Department of Journalism and Communication. He has been a research presenter at the National Multi-Disciplinary Research Conference held at Marco Polo Hotel in 2014. His paper, Berger and Craig: To Construct or Deconstruct a Grand Theory of Communication in a Post-Structuralist Milieu has been published in the CNU Journal of Higher Education. He has co-authored a book on the History of Cebu City published by the Cebu Provincial Government as part of the Cebu History Series launched
in 2015. Prior to joining the academe, he served a writer and researcher of the Ramon Aboitiz Foundation, Inc., a Consultant to the Offi ce of the Governor of Cebu, Art Director, Feature Writer, and Heritage Columnist of Sun.Star Cebu.

Ricky B. Villeta, University of San Jose-Recoletos

graduated from Mindanao State University – Iligan Institute of Technology (MSU-IIT) with a degree of Bachelor of Science in Mathematics (Pure Mathematics) in 2003 as a fulltime scholar, City Mayor’s scholar (Iligan City) granted from having graduated in high school as class valedictorian and CHED-COE (Center of Excellence in Mathematics) scholar awarded by MSU-IIT mathematics and statistics department. He also obtained his Master of Science in Mathematics degree in 2007, with a specialization in abstract algebra (group theory) at MSU-IIT. He had served as Mathematics Lecturer from 2003 to 2005 and as graduate teaching assistant from 2005 to 2006 at the Mathematics and Statistics Department of the College of Science and Mathematics of MSU-IIT. Since 2006 to present, he is a faculty member of the Department of Mathematics and Sciences of the College of Arts and Sciences at University of San Jose – Recoletos (USJ-R), Cebu City. He has been teaching research methods, design of experiments and statistical models in the graduate school, differential equation, differential calculus, integral calculus, applied statistics in business, behavioral statistics, biostatistics, computer aided analysis, linear algebra, abstract algebra, number theory, probability theory, quantitative analysis in business, mathematical investigations and modeling, among others. He is also a trainer for basic and tertiary non-deped teachers on senior high curriculum in mathematics, statistics and probability areas in the Visayas region. His research works and interests are in abstract algebra (group theory), graph theory, differential equation, mathematical modeling and simulation, fractal statistics, data mining and theory development. He also serves as researcher and research statistician at the Center for Policy, Research and Development Studies in USJ-R.

Roberto N. Padua

Dr. Roberto Natividad Padua, scientist, received his PhD in Mathematical Statistics from Clemson University, South Carolina, USA under the Fullbright-Hays scholarship grant. He is an accomplished author, a multi-awarded researcher and an internationally acclaimed lecturer. Dr. Padua is a former Commissioner of CHED and currently a consultant to several state and private universities. He is also conducting lectures on research and Fractal Statistics. Dr. Padua is a Summa Cum Laude, BS in Mathematics Teaching graduate from the Philippine Normal College under the National Science Development Board (NSDB) program. He obtained his MS in Mathematics Education Degree from the Centro Escolar University as a Presidential Scholar.


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How to Cite

Velez Jr., J. D., Villeta, R. B., Padua, R. N., Hao, R., & Colina, M. (2015). A Predictive Model on the Spread of HIV in Cebu City. Recoletos Multidisciplinary Research Journal, 3(2). https://doi.org/10.32871/rmrj1503.02.10




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